Infobip projects 3.9 billion brand–customer messages for 2025 shopping season

Infobip forecasts significant year-on-year growth across messaging channels during Black Friday and Cyber Monday, led by expanding RCS adoption. The data highlights messaging patterns across the US and Europe as brands increase their digital engagement.

Vice President of Marketing & Growth at Infobip. 

Global communications provider Infobip expects more than 3.9 billion messages to be exchanged between brands and customers during the 2025 shopping season, representing a 15% year-on-year increase. The projection reflects expanded use of AI-driven tools, mobile commerce, and rich messaging formats across retail engagement.

Rich Communication Services (RCS) is forecast to be the fastest-growing channel, with global volumes projected to rise 161% on Black Friday and 269% on Cyber Monday. SMS is expected to maintain the highest overall volume, reaching nearly 2.7 billion interactions.

In the United States, Infobip estimates more than 1.9 billion SMS messages. RCS volumes are projected to exceed 57 million, up sharply from 2024. WhatsApp activity is expected to grow 44%, while email volumes are set to rise more than 50% on Cyber Monday. Surveyed US consumers indicated planned spending primarily between $250 and $1,000 during Black Friday.

Across Europe, RCS usage is projected to increase more than sixfold on Black Friday and fivefold on Cyber Monday. WhatsApp messaging is expected to nearly triple, while email volumes may rise by over 50%. SMS usage on Black Friday is anticipated to grow 37%. Spending intentions vary by country: most consumers in the UK plan to spend under £250, with some planning up to £1,000; consumers in Italy, Spain, and Germany generally expect to spend between €250 and €500.

Email remains the primary channel for order confirmations and promotional communication across Europe. Southern European markets continue to favor SMS, while Northern European markets show increasing adoption of rich chat formats.

Commenting on the forecast, Ben Lewis, Vice President of Marketing & Growth at Infobip, noted that the shopping season now spans extended periods rather than single days, and that recent platform developments—such as Apple’s adoption of RCS—are influencing communication trends between retailers and consumers.

Infobip’s analysis indicates that omni-channel communication continues to shape how brands manage customer interactions during high-volume retail periods.