South Africa’s digital commerce poised for growth in 2026 amid shifting global trade

Despite mounting international trade pressures, South African payment, fintech and logistics leaders see digital commerce strengthening next year, reshaping how consumers pay and how businesses operate.

South Africa is entering 2026 with a digital commerce outlook that remains notably resilient, even as global trade faces sustained disruption from tariffs, regulatory uncertainty and changing shipping dynamics. Industry voices across payments, crypto and logistics suggest that while exporters will continue to feel pressure from abroad, the domestic digital economy is gaining momentum, driven by evolving consumer behaviour and rapid adoption of alternative payment technologies.

According to insights from Peach Payments, one of South Africa’s leading payment providers, card transactions are expected to remain the backbone of digital commerce in the near term. However, the company notes a clear acceleration in demand for alternative payment methods as consumers place greater trust in established digital payment brands and increasingly shop through social channels such as Instagram and WhatsApp. This shift is prompting merchants to rethink their payment strategies and adopt more flexible, omnichannel solutions.

Momentum is also building around PayShap Real-Time Payouts, with early deployments demonstrating practical benefits for both merchants and consumers. Market expectations point to a broader rollout in 2026, including in-store acceptance by major retailers, which would significantly expand PayShap’s role beyond online transactions and into everyday point-of-sale environments.

In parallel, cryptocurrency adoption is moving from the margins toward more mainstream use. Following high-visibility retail implementations, South African consumers are showing growing interest in crypto-based payments, a trend that is beginning to influence merchant acceptance. Bitcoin, in particular, is increasingly viewed as a hedge against currency volatility and a potential alternative for cross-border transactions. Anticipated regulatory guidance from the South African Reserve Bank could further accelerate this trajectory, positioning crypto as a complementary option to traditional international payment systems such as SWIFT.

Despite these domestic advances, global trade pressures remain a critical concern for South African exporters. Ongoing US tariff policies are expected to continue shaping international trade flows well into 2026, with slow-moving negotiations and legal disputes contributing to prolonged uncertainty. At the same time, global consumers are becoming more price-sensitive, scrutinising supply chains and cost structures, a shift that could weigh on demand for exported goods.

Even so, projections for the local market remain positive. Peach Payments expects online retail to continue expanding its share of South Africa’s total retail activity in 2026, supported by strong growth in online travel and wider adoption of local and alternative payment methods. This divergence highlights a market entering the new year with strong domestic digital fundamentals, even as international conditions remain challenging.

As 2026 approaches, South Africa’s e-commerce and fintech ecosystem appears well positioned to build on payment innovation and consumer trust. The central challenge will be sustaining this momentum while navigating an increasingly complex global trade environment.